Nigeria's real estate sector is poised for sustained growth over the next three years, with our baseline forecast projecting annual appreciation of 8–10% across both commercial and residential segments through 2028. This optimistic but measured outlook is underpinned by three structural tailwinds: rapid urbanisation at 4.2% per annum — among the highest rates globally — diaspora remittances exceeding $20 billion annually, and a series of government housing reforms designed to unlock institutional capital for the sector.
The residential sector continues to benefit from a massive housing deficit, estimated at 17–20 million units nationwide. This supply gap, combined with a young and growing population, creates a durable demand floor that insulates the market from all but the most severe macroeconomic shocks. In premium locations across Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, capital values have already recovered to pre-2020 levels, with select neighbourhoods posting double-digit annual returns for institutional investors.
On the commercial side, the expansion of Nigeria's technology ecosystem and the formalisation of the financial services sector are creating robust demand for Grade A office space, logistics facilities, and retail centres. Foreign direct investment into Nigerian real estate reached $3.8 billion in 2025, and we project this figure to surpass $5 billion by 2028 as the regulatory environment continues to improve and more international developers enter the market.
However, investors should remain cognisant of key risk factors. Currency volatility remains the primary concern for foreign-denominated returns, while regulatory uncertainty around land use charges and property taxation could impact yields in certain jurisdictions. Oasis recommends a diversified portfolio approach, combining direct residential development exposure in high-growth corridors with commercial leasing positions in established business districts. Our advisory team is available to structure bespoke investment strategies aligned with individual risk appetites and return objectives.